While the diplomatic and technological initiatives taken by China may have little chance to succeed, its new trans-Karakoram roads need to be closely monitored as they may pose security risk to India
by Prasad Nallapati*
China has begun taking its own initiatives having lost confidence in Pakistan’s ability to secure its investments under the “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor” (CPEC) project. Being the first demonstrator flagship project of its ambitious “Border and Roads Initiative” (BRI), China holds high stakes in its success.
Trilateral Meeting with Pakistan and Iran
China is reportedly preparing to host a trilateral meeting in Beijing with Pakistan and Iran to help resolve their differences over counterterrorism issues. The three countries are also said to be considering a joint pact on regional security.
Iran and Pakistan have long been at loggerheads over providing safe-heavens to terrorist groups opposed to each other. Iran launched missile attacks in January on terrorist hideouts inside Pakistan and the latter retaliated with its own air attacks on Baluch terrorist hideouts inside Iran. The situation was quickly defused with the intervention of the top leadership of the two countries but local conditions continue to be tense.
China has the most to lose from such instability in the region. China has heavily invested in these areas as part of the CPEC including the border regions of Iran. China has signed a $ 25 billion economic collaboration project with Iran and began investing in various projects there.
Chinese officials held a meeting with their counterparts of Iran and Pakistan in Beijing in June last year and demanded them to act against the Baluch Liberation Army (BLA) and its suicide wing, Majid Brigade, which was specifically created to target CPEC projects, as well as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and other regional groups targeting Chinese interests.
Obviously, there has been no improvement.
China Faces Highest Number of Terrorist Attacks in Pakistan
China has faced the highest number of attacks in Pakistan compared to in any other country. As many as 35 armed attacks are recorded overall against Chinese interests and personnel engaged on CPEC projects, according to counterterrorism experts.
The latest incident happened last week when seven workers were killed in Gwadar Port area in Baluchistan, where China is building the most strategic project of the CPEC. Earlier in March, five Chinese nationals were killed in a suicide attack on a vehicle carrying them on the Dasu Dam in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
A more serious attack took place in December last near the town of Chilas, in Gilgit-Baltistan region, on the Karakoram Highway close to the Chinese border in which 10 persons were shot dead and over 100 injured.
Connecting Kashgar in the Xinjiang region of China and Abbottabad and Gwadar in Pakistan, the 1300 km highway forms the most important node of the CPEC.
China’s New Road to Bypass Gilgit area of Kashmir – Raises Concerns in India
China has been building roads and other infrastructure facilities across India’s northern borders in the trans-Karakoram region raising serious security concerns. A new such road has come to notice recently.
Using satellite imageries, analyst Nature Desai has given the alignment of the road crossing the Aghil Pass into the lower Shaksgam valley in the Aksai Chin area of Kashmir. This region was given to China by Pakistan in 1963 as part of their border agreement.
The new road-head is 30 miles north of India’s positions on the strategic Siachen glacier.
Analyzing Chinese intentions, particularly prospects of an assault on Indian positions, senior Army experts like Lt Gen (Retd) P.R. Shankar and Lt. Gen. (Retd) Prakash Menon discounted such possibilities due to inhospitable terrain.
Instead, they opined that the road may be part of an effort to lay a bypass to the Karakoram Highway of the CPEC by resurrecting an old route that connected Yarkand in Xinxiang province of China to Skardu in the Northern Areas of the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. They, however, conclude that such a viable route is unlikely to come in the next decade.
Such a road, whenever built, bypasses the route passing through Gilgit area, infested with sectarian and terrorist groups which are opposed to Chinese interests.
While the diplomatic and technological initiatives taken by China may have little chance to succeed, its new trans-Karakoram roads need to be closely monitored as they may pose security risk to India.
(*Prasad Nallapati is President of the Hyderabad-based think-tank, “Deccan Council for Strategic Initiatives and former Additional Secretary to the Govt of India)
