It is a schadenfreude moment for the US, Israel and their allies as Iran is in a precarious state
by Prasad Nallapati*
Iran has taken the bait by responding with a barrage of `ineffective’ ballistic missiles at Israeli targets while the latter’s commando forces began their ground operations into southern Lebanon, having destroyed the Hezbollah’s Chain of Command, drone and missile launching capacity and its communications.
The Islamic Republic fired nearly 200 missiles last night and most were neutralized by joint US-Israeli air defenses with no casualties. Tehran perhaps has no other option, though knowing to be ineffective, to retain its influence among its regional militia allies and keep their morale up.
It, however, gives Israel and the US much needed pretext to “aim big” and they are itching to go for it.
Ultimate Target is “Head of Octopus”
The timing is perfect for Prime Minister Netanyahu to go after Israel’s ultimate target, the head of “Iranian octopus”. “Israel is fighting against an Iranian octopus whose head is in Tehran, and its arms are trying to strike us,” as Defense Minister Yoav Gallant put it.
The `axis of resistance’, the Iran-backed militias and groups, are the arms of the octopus and Israel has already made short work of many of them to pose any threat to its march to Tehran.
Hezbollah is not an ordinary organization. Iran’s clerical leadership has created and nurtured it to be the frontline in their proxy war against the Jewish state. Assassination of its Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah is not like the killing of any other commander.
He built and expanded the organization, in his 32-year reign, to be a formidable military and political power in Lebanon. Israel has long been preparing for a final showdown with it as can be seen from huge resources invested in penetrating the group that finally led to its downfall.
The current “limited, localized, and targeted ground raids” are aimed at destroying Hezbollah’s remaining infrastructure and pushing the group’s fighters away from villages near the border to secure the 60,000 Israelis living in the northern areas.
Having demonstrated its supreme mastery over technological warfare to decimate its `low-level’ adversaries, Israel may not want to get bogged down in cleaning operations. Hezbollah is ceased to be an `existential’ threat, at least in the near term.
Syrian military assets have long been incapacitated, the Hamas is pulverized and the Houthis of Yemen are at the receiving end with fresh attacks on its ports and power plants. Shia militias in Iraq have limited reach and are under watch from American forces stationed in the country.
Iran’s military forces are themselves immobilized with massive deployment of US forces in the Red Sea and surrounding areas. They have deployed two aircraft carriers, which is rare, with an array of supporting warships and aircraft in addition to a submarine arm.
How Israel’s Next Offensive Looks Like….
Riding high after the Hezbollah strikes, Netanyahu addressed Iranian people directly saying that they would be free from “fanatic” and “crushing” theocratic rule “sooner than many think” and held out a bright future for them with the two “ancient peoples”, the Persians and Jews, living in peace.
He was calling upon the people to take up arms against their regime.
There were already rumors of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei being shifted to a secret hiding.
The clerical regime has been shaken but it is very unlikely they would in any way loosen grip over the country. The US and Israel have long tried to instigate Iranians to raise against their regime but always ended up with disastrous consequences to the people.
Iran is left with fewer options.
With no credible deterrence of its own military capability or that of the Hezbollah, Israel may be further encouraged to target Iran’s nuclear installations. Any Iranian attempts to launch missile attacks on Israel will not be effective and only bring massive retaliation.
Iran has also been signaling for temporary reconciliation with the US. President Pezeshkian has held out readiness for nuclear re-negotiations while addressing the UN General Assembly last week.
While there are no takers for such a move, it would only bring the wrath of hardliners in the regime and further dent the reverence the `axis’ groups have for Tehran.
Dawn of New West Asia Or More of The Same?
It is a schadenfreude moment for the US, Israel and their allies as Iran is in a precarious state.
The US has all along been claiming that it was not in the know of the Israeli operations in advance and they came to know of them after they were launched. It is hard to believe. They knew the objectives of the operations and have been backing in every possible manner.
The Sunni Arab Sheikhdoms would be only too happy to see their Shia threat diminishing.
Netanyahu regained his stature as the Hezbollah clean up restored the tarnished reputation of Israeli intelligence. His ratings have spiked up and even his staunch political opponents are returning to court him again.
Though the Iranian resistance to Israel may have diminished for now but not disappeared. The clerical regime is unlikely to go away anytime soon and would bid for its time. Hezbollah is down but would bounce back sooner than later with its much radical younger leadership now at the helm.
West Asia keeps burning.
(*Prasad Nallapati is President of the Hyderabad-based think-tank, “Deccan Council for Strategic Studies and former Additional Secretary in Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India)
