With the Opposition dreaming to make the forth coming electoral battle a one-on -one contest, Modi hat-trick is not a given, and the BJP will have to toil hard and sweat to get its poll arithmetic right in and outside the cow belt, says the author as he takes a close look at the political calculus in the South.
by Ankineedu Prasad Nallapati,
January 07, 2024
The Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is the favourite to win the next general election scheduled in the scorching months of summer, going by the mood of the nation surveys.
The party has won the 2019 election bagging 303 of the 542 Lok Sabha (lower house of Parliament) seats.
Actually, it was an outright victory with over 50 per cent votes in 224 seats in what is called BJP heartland states. This number was short of mid-way mark of 272 seats for an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha.
Elsewhere, which account for 319 seats, the BJP score card was poor- just 79 wins with smaller margins.
With fractured opposition, that was not a bad show then, but in 2024 with the Opposition dreaming to make the contest one-on -one, the BJP will have to toil hard and sweat to get its poll arithmetic right for Modi hat-trick particularly in the fringe seats.
Like any economic discourse, this political analysis is hostage to several factors. Much depends on Sonia – Rahul combine’s ability to pocket GOP pride and in facilitating reasonable, if not meaningful, distribution of seats in the Opposition Block – I.N.D.I.A. (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance). Rifts have developed in the Block across all states.
Karnataka is a key state outside the cow-belt, where the BJP nurtured its vote bank assiduously since the Emergency days but was clean bowled by the Congress in the Assembly election three months ago.
In neighbouring Maharashtra, where the BJP is heading the ruling alliance, and in Telangana, which has since slipped into the Congress-fold, BJP is unlikely to retain its hold at the ballot box. Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal embraced BJP’s tool kit to beat it in its own game. Central Enforcement Directorate officials were beaten red when they have gone there to raid her senior party leader.
Yet, interestingly, the BJP is quietly cashing-in on the flip side of the grand alliance, which is lack of cohesion in its ranks and single-minded anti-BJP pursuit.
Its strategy is two-fold. Cow them down through political attacks and wither them down by probes of central investigation agencies. Simultaneously it is looking for new pastures.
FOCUS SOUTH
BJP’s audacious gambit is on full display in the South that accounts for 131 Lok Sabha seats.
Prime Minister Modi himself has set in motion a socio-cultural re-engineering, to reap electoral gains. He conceived and designed the template to checkmate, if not decimate, the exclusivist Dravidian politics. It is a long-term plan, but has near term benefits.
Kashi Tamil Sangamam has gone into two editions so far. The first edition in 2022 saw around 2,400 people from Tamil Nadu – students, teachers, writers, professionals, spiritual leaders, farmers and artisans, traders, and businessmen- travel to Kashi, and other religious and cultural places in Uttar Pradesh on Mission Bridge North-South Divide.
The second edition of Sangamam began last month. Modi used artificial intelligence for simultaneous translation of his Hindi speech to reach out to his Tamil audience. This was an innovation at its best. Modi launched multi-language and Braille translations of Thirukkural, Manimekalai and other Tamil classics.
Modi’s first visit in the new year was to Tamil Nadu (Jan 2-3) where he interacted with youth and women.
In a strategic outreach, he has given a fresh lease to Tamil icon, Rani Velu Nachiyar, the 18th century Tamil warrior queen, whom folk history remembers but not colonial history or post-Independence history. She predated Rani of Jhansi by 77 years, and successfully battled the British for nearly a decade with the support of Hyder Ali, the Mysore ruler, who himself had given nightmare to the British. Playing with and popping up icons is not new development. Both Congress and the BJP have tried to appropriate revolutionary poet Subramaniya Bharathiyar.
By focusing on Rani Velu Nachiyar, Modi is naturally trying to be one-up on the Dravidian parties, which have singularly failed to honour her since independence. Of course, he is sending out his usual message – take pride in your past.
The BJP has found a much-needed opening in the weakening of AIADMK, which has split. The saffron party, which was earlier a junior partner to the AIADMK, has now taken a dominant position with its energetic state leader, K. Annamalai, playing the role of the main opposition party.
Tamil Nadu has 39 parliamentary seats, largest in South India, and the BJP is looking to go to the polls solo. One of the AIADMK factions is likely to align with the BJP, says political grapevine.
BJP leaders are expecting a `pleasant surprise’ in the summer ballot, given Modi’s “rising acceptance” in the state.
KARNATAKA PUZZLE
The land of Mutts, Karnataka is the second biggest Southern state with 28 seats at stake. The BJP currently holds 25 of them. Focusing to win at least 15 seats, BJP has tied up with the father-son party, Janata Dal (Secular) to consolidate the Vokkalinga votes. B.S. Yeddyurappa has been restored his pre-eminence in the BJP with an eye on his Lingayat base.
TELANGANA REJIG
Telangana has been the target of Hindutva onslaught for a long while. The party had won four of the 17 Lok Sabha seats last time. The party hope to win at least ten seats. The jump in vote share to 14 percent up from seven percent in the recent assembly elections has given starry eyes to the saffron camp.
UNSETTED ANDHRA
Andhra Pradesh will witness a straight clash between ruling YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) and the Opposition, Telugu Desam (TDP) and their allies for the 25 seats at stake. The BJP has no presence, with less than 1 per cent votes polled in the 2019 election. The party had a golden run at the Telugu ballot box just once in the 1992 election.
Right now, it is a confusing love triangle, as the Week puts it. A small party, Jana Sena (JSP), floated by film star Pavan Kalyan, has closed ranks with the TDP. It is trying to rope in the BJP, reviving memories of TDP-BJP sweep in the 2014 election.
In recent years, BJP and YSRCP have had an undeclared alliance as their common goal is to decimate the TDP. And there is love-hate relationship between TDP and BJP, which had split after a bitter public spat.
BJP does not seem to be too perturbed about the alliances as it is guaranteed to have the support of whoever wins. It, however, appears to be angling to contest at least for five seats, with or without props to inch up its desired score.
Unexpected twist in the Telugu tale is some stirrings in the GOP, which had lost its plot a while ago to the YSRCP. Sharmila, the estranged sister of the Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy, has merged her Telangana based outfit with the Congress and is leading the GOP march. With or without Sharmila the Congress is unlikely to make any big splash. Well, it may marginally damage the YSRCP.
GOD’S OWN COUNTRY
BJP has been focusing on the 18 per cent Christian population in the God’s own country. It has been building bridges with various church leaders to make up for the absence of any base in the state. What electoral dividend will come BJP way is a Sudoku since Kerala is the turf of CPI-M and Congress.
Modi has been trying his charm to entice the Union Territories of Pondicherry and Lakshadweep, which have one seat each in Parliament. He made it a point to visit the island territory to inaugurate a project as part of his visit to Tamil Nadu.
The attempt is to explore the prospects of winning even 1s or 2s from the area to boost the BJP’s tally for a comfortable win even if there are headwinds in other areas from a united opposition. ###
(Ankineedu Prasad Nallapati is President of the Hyderabad-based think-tank, “Deccan Council for Strategic Studies”, and former Additional Secretary to Govt of India)
