If the US keeps true to its commitments to Africa, China will have tough time to attain its security goals. In case the American objective is limited to containing China, it is unlikely to go much farther.
by Prasad Nallapati
Africa is the new bride in the town that all major powers are vying to impress and influence her. The US and Europe had long enjoyed preeminence, but they are fast losing out to China and Russia, due to their indifferent and unhelpful attitude toward the continent. China’s successful inroad has shaken them up to make matching efforts, but Africans are skeptical of their long-term commitment.
Africa’s population is younger and fast growing than any other part of the world, with the median age being 19. They are highly aspirational and enterprising. Africa is estimated to have the highest rate of entrepreneurship in the world. A whopping 22 percent of the African working-age population has started businesses. Dubai has become a business capital for Africa, with over 21,000 African companies headquartered there. Rapidly growing African cities are expected to constitute 13 of the world’s 20 biggest urban areas by the end of the century.
At the same time, Africa is also a whirlpool of hazards, confronting political instability, insurgencies, and Islamist terrorism. According to the World Bank, “48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa could be home to 90 percent of the world’s poor by 2030. Twenty of the world’s 38 countries in fragile and conflict-affected situations are on the continent; five military coups took place there between 2021 and 2022.”
Economic prospects or security threats, Africa offers enormous opportunities in equal measure. China, Russia, and Gulf countries are gleefully relishing to capitalize. These deepening relationships are shaping the foreign policies of African governments. One indication of the trend was that 25 of Africa’s 54 states abstained or did not vote to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine during the UN General Assembly resolution in March this year.
China’s trade relations with Africa reached a historic high of $254 billion in 2021 as the US trade with the continent declined from a peak of $142 billion in 2008 to just $64 billion in 2021, and it now accounts for a mere 1.1 percent of US global commerce. There is a mass exodus of US and European oil giants, like ExxonMobil, Chevron, Marathon, Total etc., from the continent as they do not see it attractive anymore, leaving the ground open to China. Beijing is aiming to overtake the EU as Africa’s biggest trade partner by 2030.
Having thus raised its profile, China is now challenging the West with its own model of global governance and security architecture to address peace and security issues in the continent. The Chinese blockbuster film, “Wolf Warrior II, aptly captures Beijing’s ambitious and exaggerated role for Africa. It portrays the arrival of a new race to displace exploitative whites as the new saviour of an Africa ravaged by civil war, political chaos, starvation, and deadly disease.
Political and Security Challenges in East Africa – Role of the West vs China and other powers
The competition amongst global powers for influence is perhaps the most intense in the Horn of Africa. Djibouti, a strategic port city on the mouth of the Red Sea with easy access to the Arabian Sea, the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, hosts naval bases of several countries including China, which is the last to arrive but fast expanding.
Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous country and a linchpin of regional security, has been ravaged by ethnic insurgencies in several regions raising concerns of the country slipping back into another civil war. A yearlong military campaign in the northern Tigray region drained the country and pushed millions of people into famine-like conditions. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which had ruled the country until the current Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, launched an armed struggle to topple him. He is also contending with unrest in Oromia, the most populous region, where a local insurgent group, the Oromo Liberation Army, has joined with the TPLF with a common goal. The neighbouring Gambella region too is up in the arms with Gambella Liberation Front launching deadly attacks.
Ethiopian military could retrieve the situation from the jaws of defeat thanks to heavy military supplies from China, Russia, Turkey, Iran and the UAE. A fleet of combat drones and armoured vehicles supplied by them proved decisive. Russia has also thwarted UN Security Council resolutions, sponsored by the US, drawing attention to the Tigray conflict and humanitarian crisis there, which was well appreciated in Addis Ababa. The US and the western world have been highly critical of Abiy’s handling of the situation and imposed sanctions, thus cracking relations between the two former allies.
Somalia is yet to build a national coherence. On the one hand, northern clans have set up their own self-declared republics of Somaliland and Puntland, while on the other much of the southern and central parts are in the grip of al-Shabaab, a terrorist affiliate of the al-Qaida. It gained control over a significant part of territory and carried out terrorist attacks at will even in capital Mogadishu, thanks to premature withdrawal of US forces by Trump administration. This is, however, reversed now by President Biden.
In addition to China, Turkey is also following a muscular policy in Somalia, where it has its largest foreign military base, Camp Turksom, providing training to Somali military and police. Turkey also manages Mogadishu airport in addition to heavy investments in infrastructure and social projects through Islamic charities. With its long coastline, ports, and potentially abundant on and offshore oil and gas, Somalia’s importance will only grow.
Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi are involved in an interstate conflict centering on the border regions of North and South Kivu and Ituri of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which are being used as launchpads by rebel groups of the three countries to attack them. The current crisis erupted late last year, when the largely defunct `March 23 Movement’ (M23) group carried out lightning strikes on DRC military positions in North Kivu province. As the M23 is mainly ethnic Tutsi organization and the Rwandan government is also Tutsi-led, Congolese officials hint at the involvement of the latter in the assault. The attack coincided with deployment of Ugandan forces to the province, under an agreement with DRC government, to pursue the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a Ugandan rebel group that operates from the region.
Barney Walsh, in his book “Ugandan Agency in China-Africa Relations,” writes that President Museveni has been uniquely influential in utilizing China’s presence to shape regional security dynamics in Uganda’s favour. China funded mega infrastructure projects such as railway lines and oil pipelines in the region. The book documents China’s role in small arms and light weapons proliferation, global ivory trade and oil sector that helped expand its influence. The mining belt of the Congolese region, containing some of the world’s largest deposits of Coltan, gold and diamonds, is also a bone of contention with regional countries promoting their own mafias for smuggling and re-exporting the precious metals to China and other countries.
Mozambique and Madagascar are the latest to openly shunt out their former colonial master, France, and invite China and Russia respectively for greater military cooperation. The former is facing serious challenges from the Islamic State terrorist group, operating from its northern areas. Madagascar’s support to Russia, in the latter’s war with Ukraine, angered France to abandon maritime security cooperation. Earlier this year, Mali demanded that French troops leave their country and invited Russian troops to come in and help them fight against terrorists. The Russian forces, manned by its militia group, Wagner, apparently did a good job, impressing not only their hosts, but also other French-speaking countries of Central African Republic (CAR) and Congo.
Global Security Initiative – China’s model “By the Global South for the Global South”
A confident China is now promoting its new Global Security Initiative (GSI) to build defense ties with Africa through offer of military equipment and training, intelligence sharing and counter-terrorism cooperation. In a letter to the second China-Africa Peace and Security Forum held in July this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping called on both to institute the GSI and safeguard international fairness and justice. He said, “realizing lasting peace and universal security is the common aspiration of the Chinese and African people. China is ready to work with African friends in upholding the concept of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security.” Wei Fenghe, Defence Minister was the keynote speaker at the meeting, attended by senior military officials from 48 African nations.
The GSI, announced by Xi in April, is the latest display of China’s ambition to be a leader in global governance and security. Mohammed Soliman, a scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said that China was positioning the GSI as a solution to the continent’s security challenges – “a non-Western alternative and mechanism by the global south for the global south”.
Earlier in June, China and six East African states convened in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia for the first China-Horn of Africa Peace, Governance and Development Conference, where the PRC Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa Xue Bing sought a greater role for Beijing in the region, “not only in trade and investments but also in the area of peace and development.” A joint statement committed to utilize confidence building, dispute resolution, dialogue and negotiation to achieve a “lasting peace” in the region.
Russia’s Influence
While China’s success was led by its liberal loans and investments, Russian expansion was driven by its mercenary forces and arms supplies. It is Russian military backing that is keeping beleaguered leaders in the Central African Republic (CAR), Mali and Sudan in power. President Abdel al Sisi of Egypt is a key ally in Russia’s efforts to install a proxy government in Libya. Egypt is a major recipient of arms supplies from Russia. Moscow is supplying arms to several other countries, including Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria etc. Uganda and Ethiopia, which are historically western-leaning, are drawing closer to Moscow for the latter’s support in their counter-insurgency campaigns and in protest against western criticism of their human rights record.
Western Approach to Reverse Falling Prestige
The US approach toward the continent had long been one of general apathy, withdrawal and sanctioning many former allies for their handling of democracy and human rights. The American dilemma turned more acute as it witnessed many African militaries, trained by the US, are ousting civilian governments in coups thus disrupting American security strategy and giving Russians an opening. Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Sudan are some of the examples.
The Biden administration is now trying to take more pro-active approach to win over former allies and counter Chinese influence. He has just unveiled a new “21st Century US-African Partnership” for the purpose. He ordered return of US forces to Somalia, reversing Trump era decision. A summit with African leaders is also scheduled in Washington for December, the first of its kind since former President Barack Obama held one in 2014. African leaders welcomed these moves but are unsure of Washington’s long-term commitment.
The head of the US military command for Africa, General Stephen Townsend, travelled in May from Djibouti to Angola via Somalia, Kenya and Rwanda. The aim was to strengthen security cooperation with African partners and limit Chinese influence in East and Southern Africa. Somali President requested for more US forces and drone attacks on al Shabaab hideouts. Kenya also offered its territory to fight against the terrorist group.
Britain and the European Union have embarked on a diplomatic drive to regain fading influence while Japan announced new plans of $ 30 billion in aid and investment in Africa, after being largely absent from the continent for several years.
Gulf and Africa
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a new entrant to the race for influence in Africa, but Its political maneuvering and economic investments demonstrate its ambitious strategic goals. President Mohammed bin Nayed al-Nahyan has taken a deep diplomatic dive to secure a mediatory role for his country in the region. He held intensive consultations with leaders of Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt to find a way to resolve the controversial issue of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, built over the Nile river by Ethiopia, but Cairo is increasingly concerned that its main Gulf partner is veering radically away from its own positions. The Emirati leader is also trying to flex his muscles to influence political line up in Sudan. He is backing Abdalla Hamdok, former Prime Minister who is living in the UAE since he was forced out of power in January this year, as the key to form a new Sudanese government, much to the dismay of Cairo and also Moscow, which is banking on Vice President Lt. Gen. Mohamed Hamdan “Hemeti”.
Leaders of the UAE and Somalia met recently and resolved differences, which had created fissures between the two countries leading to ban of the Dubai Ports (DP) World from Somalia. The company is presently operating port terminals in 10 African countries. A new entrant, Abu Dhabi Ports (ADP), with a war chest of a billion dollars, is hunting for projects in Africa in a bid to match its rival DP World. The ADP, backed by Emirati President, has now secured or in the process of getting port terminal projects in several countries including Egypt, Sudan, Angola, DRC, Namibia, Guinea etc.
African Leaders are more Realistic Now
African leaders are more realistic now and increasingly aware of the consequences of global power rivalries to secure their interests in the continent. They are no longer hesitant to negotiate with the Chinese to get better terms while accepting its offer of loans and investments in mutually beneficial projects. They have no qualms in taking military assistance from any quarter that could help political stability and keep them in power. They are also equally adept in playing one against the other to advance their goals. Neither the US nor China is able to dictate and instead they are reconciling to a more softer approach to appease African leaders.
Ethiopia, having taken military support from China and Russia, is now open to a rapprochement with the US, as the two former allies have much in common. Beijing’s overtures to Somaliland were rebuffed and the latter is cozying up to the US with an eye to get international recognition as an independent state. Chinese projects, in several countries, are under scrutiny and some are even shut down on fears of debt traps or for alleged corrupt practices.
Notwithstanding such reverses, China continues to be a darling to Africa backed by its heavy investments. The US and EU, however, still command respect and reputation as the African leaders look up to them for global recognition, technology and concessional assistance from international financial institutions. If the US keeps true to its commitments to Africa, China will have tough time to attain its security goals. In case the American objective is limited to containing China in Africa, it is unlikely to go much farther.
(The writer, a former Additional Secretary to Government of India, heads the Deccan Council for Strategic Initiatives, a think-tank based in Hyderabad)
