Whatever be Yunus tryst with history, Washington cannot escape the blame of taking a perilous gamble in South Asia
Rama Rao Malladi*
Jamaat-e-Islami appears to be in the driver’s seat in Bangladesh.
The Islamist party is enjoying the spotlight following the assassination of Sharif Osman Hadi, a student leader, and spokesman for the anti-Hasina, anti-India Inquilab Mancha (Platform for Revolution). More so, after the courting by Washington with its eyes set on rare earth elements (REE) in the rebel-controlled Kachin belt of Northern Myanmar.
China has more or less the first mover advantage on Kachin’ assets, which are firmly under the control of rebel outfit, Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) and its military wing, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA).
A recent commentary on East Asia Forum (EAF) on Myanmar’s rare earth gold rush said some factions within KIO and KIA are ‘more open to engagement with the United States’. There are ‘differing views’ amongst the Kachin rebels ‘on how far to rely on Chinese buyers.’ There is no unanimity on exploring alternative outlets.
As of now, Myanmar accounts for nearly 98 per cent of China’s imports totalling over 9000 tonnes of concentrates of terbium, dysprosium and other rare earth elements – all essential for green energy and defence technologies.
Put differently, China’s rare earth’s dominance critically depends on Kachin imports since its own ore reserves are diminishing after over 30-years of extraction.
US SEES OPENING
What makes the US to see an opening is the reality check that Beijing is benefitting from ‘illicit’ Kachin exports.
Northern Myanmar adjoins Bangladesh while Kachin province is on the border with China.
A Reuters report in the Bangkok Post (July 8, 2025) made two interesting observations.
One: Nearly half of world’s supply of heavy rare earths is extracted from Kachin mines. Some of these mines are at Bhamo, a strategically vital garrison town less than 100 km away from the China border.
Two: The global supply of heavy rare earths hinges in part on the outcome of a months-long battle between the rebels’ army, KIA, and the Chinese-backed military junta.
The fighting is said to have restricted mining operations. And, led to a big slump in rare-earth exports in recent weeks.
BANGLADESH SCENE
Now, cut to the surcharged Bangladesh scene.
Awami League (AL) has for long attributed the fall of Shiek Hasina regime in 2024 to the US department of dirty tricks.
“Hasina refused a toe-hold for the Americans in the Bangladesh-Myanmar border region, which could have taken them close to the theatre of action,” the AL sources say.
Jamaat was the backbone of the engineered students’ revolt against Hasina.
And Washington’s ‘dangerous’ courtship with the Jamaat -led Islamic bloc is a natural corollary.
TRUMP POLICY
Trump administration’s Dhaka policy is in many ways an extension of its embrace of Talibanised Pakistan Army. The White House is never known to look beyond its nose under Republican Presidents.
Pertinent in this context is the deployment of the Seventh Fleet in the Bay of Bengal during the Liberation War of Bangladesh (1971).
Also, worth recalling is the ‘gifting’ of American manufacturing base to China after Pakistan facilitated the ‘quite’ trip of President Nixon’s national security advisor Henry Kissinger to Beijing (July 9-11, 1971).
Today, another Republican, President Trump is waging a losing battle to reverse the Nixon- Kissinger legacy.
In the process, he is pump-priming misplaced tariff wars. Also, nurturing a duopoly with China.
This degression into America’s talking points is on purpose.
It is to put in perspective the meetings US officials had with the Jamaat, it’s student wing – Islami Chhatra Shibir, and the hardline Islami Andolan Bangladesh (IAB), which, according to noted Dhaka Journalist, Salah Uddin Shoaib Choudhury, “openly vow to enforce Sharia Law nation-wide.”
The IAB never hides it admiration of the Taliban model.
Deeply involved in this ‘on going’ policy dialogue are the International Republican Institute (IRI) and the National Democratic Institute (NDI), according to an article by Sam Westrop posted on Middle East Forum on Dec 10. Both institutes are known vehicles of the US political establishment.
US LAW MAKERS’ APPEAL
Unmindful of official U.S. tilt, five leading American lawmakers – Gregory W Meeks, Bill Huizenga, Sydney Kamlager-Dove, Julie Johnson and Thomas R Suozzi – have expressed concern over the deteriorating situation in B’desh.
And asked Mohammed Yunus, interim Tsar of the country, to ‘reconsider’ the ban on Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League from the forthcoming parliamentary election.
‘Election without Awami League will be no more than a coronation’, to approvingly quote Hasina.
Instead of writing to Yunus, the American lawmakers should have had a ‘pep talk’ with their own President.
Because, Washington has put all its eggs in the Jamaat basket. In its view, the Jamaat and other Islamist parties would evolve into ‘responsible stakeholders’.
These are ‘funny, half-baked’ ideas, according to observers, who see a parallel to the Bangla story in Malaysia, where the US government is pouring millions into Muslim Brotherhood’s coffers.
STRATEGIC DELUSIONS
A more cynical take is that strategic delusions have now overtaken Trump camp like when the US had ‘empowered the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Islamist factions from Yemen to Tunisia’.
Clearly, the U. S. is engaged in short-term pursuits in Bangladesh. Only the egg heads sitting in the White House chambers can see ‘Good Jamaat’ at play in Dhaka just as Pakistan’s civil- military leadership, mollycoddled by the West, used to dub Islamist militants ‘on their rolls’ as ‘Good Terrorists’.
From the unfolding events across Bangladesh, it is clear that the U.S will have to revisit its policy prescriptions. Yes, if it is not to commit a historical blunder. Well, even if it is set out to redraw the Myanmar’s rare earths map with an eye on China.
Already, the Jamaat has shown its unalloyed strips, which are soaked in the blood from terror -tied mass murders.
Its Islam Chhatra Shibir, according to Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre, is the third -most violent non- state armed group in the world.
ANTI -INDIA NARRATIVE
The anti-India narrative of the Jamaat and its allies is becoming louder by the day in what is a deliberate attempt at rewriting history.
Their latest claim is that killings of intellectuals during the Liberation War were “not carried out by the Pakistan army and its local collaborators (Jamaat, Al-Badr, and Al-Shams), but by people from a ‘neighbouring’ country.”
The new churning has much to do with the emerging Pakistan- Bangladesh axis largely at the behest of China and the U.S.
The interim head of the country, Yunus, has made a ‘solemn commitment to realise the Hadi legacy’.
As pointed out at the outset, the 32 -year-old student leader was killed early December. His claim to fame was ‘Greater Bangladesh’ map he had presented on Face Book. The map included India’s Northeastern states, and West Bengal.
Nonetheless, Hadi cannot claim copyright for his feat.
Because, Yunus had himself set the ball rolling for the cartographic exercise while on a visit to Beijing, and invited China to use Bangladesh to trade with the ‘landlocked’ Northeast.
A close buddy of Hadi in recent months was Mahmodoor Rehman, who had returned from years of exile in Turkey and started his own newspaper, Amar Desh.
It will be too naïve to conclude that there is a Turkey angle as well to Bangladesh’s descent into chaos and anarchy following Hadi death but it cannot be ruled out going by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s fulminations against India.
LIBERAL TAG-RADICAL IDEOLOGY
A question doing the rounds of news rooms is about who will be able to acquire Hasina’s liberal mantle in time for the Feb ballot.
A report on Al Jazeera by Faisal Mahmud opines that Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) seeks the liberal tag.
Former President Ershad’s party also loves to don the liberal mantle. But it is still to put its act together. And time is not in its favour.
Such a pursuit by Khaleda Zia may get the party some brownie points outside the country but will let the electoral advantage slip into the hands of its one-time ally Jamaat-e-Islami.
A harsh reality of Bangladesh today is that radical ideology has secured respectability. Also, legitimacy.
What a contrast it is to fellow Muslim countries, Indonesia and Morocco that have crushed Islamist extremism.
Mob lynching is taking place under the very gaze of the police. Attacks on Hindus, Christians, and independent journalists have become a norm. All this has given currency to a local narrative that both the regime and Islamists are not keen on the Feb ballot.
Whatever be Yunus tryst with history, Washington cannot escape the blame of taking a perilous gamble in South Asia.
(*Rama Rao Malladi is senior journalist based in New Delhi and has extensively reported on sub-continental affairs)
