- Trump has chosen a “little excursion” into Iran riding a tiger and now he has no clue to how to dismount, nor he is getting any helping hand.
- Iran has refused American overtures for renewed dialogue, but it will ultimately have to come to the negotiating table. It is hoped that Trump administration will then rise to the occasion like the real statesman and bring glory back to the United States of America.
by Ankineedu Prasad Nallapati*
It’s now sufficiently clear how ill-prepared the Trump administration was in rushing into war against Iran.
The rigorous drill that usually goes into testing the feasibility of the aims, alternative plans and exit strategies had been missing. Assessments of military inadequacies given by Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the National Security Agency were ignored. Even Vice President J.D. Vance has reportedly expressed his reservations.
Benjamin Netanyahu, the wily and manipulative Prime Minister of Israel, has boasted how he was able to convince Trump to join him in attacks on the Islamic Republic that he could not do with past American Presidents. Hasn’t the President repeatedly bragged of himself doing great things that none of his predecessors could ever do?
The gullible President was led down the garden path of an easy victory.
Some heavy bombardment was all that needed, so was he assured, to decapitate the Clerical regime while the rest of the job would be finished by marching masses to usher into a new political establishment that is subservient to Trump, laying the nation’s massive oil resources at his disposal.
Losing Control as War Enters Third Week
The war entered into its third week but the end point is no where to be seen. The President himself has admitted that there are no more targets to be bombed as they had hit all that they could. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed along with many top commanders, while missile launching sites and air defenses were wiped out.
Israel appears to have scored another major hit on March 17 killing Ali Larijani, Secretary of the National Security Council, along with Gholamreza Soleimani, head of the paramilitary force, Basij. Larijani is one of the two key persons in-charge of the current situation, the other being Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Parliament. Both were former commanders.
Yet, the regime is still standing unshaken, challenging the combined forces of the US and Israel. A new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei (son of the slain leader), is appointed and the IRGC (Islamic Republic Guard Corps, the defender of the regime) has taken control of the national defense, directing precision strikes across Israel and Gulf countries.
American spin media is putting out reports of Mojtaba Khamenei on death bed, having seriously injured in the initial attacks in which his father and entire family were killed. However, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has asserted that he is “alive and functioning” although the extent of any injuries remains unclear. Turkish intelligence maintains deep connections to the IRGC.
Meanwhile, Iran continued its missile and drone attacks on Israel at regular intervals severely testing its defenses. The latter’s interceptor launchers are reportedly fast depleting, exposing it to more dangerous arsenal that Iran saved for `right moment’, according to Israeli intelligence sources.
This hidden, solid-fueled, Sejjil ballistic missile has now been launched for the first time on March 15 against Israeli targets and the extent of damage, if any, is not known as there is severe censorship of news..
Hezbollah, the pro-Iran Shia militia in Lebanon which was pulverized in Israeli attacks last year, has re-emerged opening another front tormenting northern part of the Jewish state. With its attention divided at two fronts, Israel is restricted to aerial attacks on launching sites in Lebanon, and has delayed its planned infantry march into that country..
Iranian precision attacks on the Gulf states of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar are highly selective, targeting US bases including their early-warning radars, and command and control centres. The crash last week of the US Air Force Refueling tanker, KC-135, in western Iraq killing all its six-member crew is now reported to be an enemy attack, not an “accident”.
The US offer of rewards upto $10 million for information on the new Supreme Leader and IRGC commanders reflects its frustration in finding and killing them.
Geological features of Iran provide excellent hiding places for men and material. Even coastal features of the Strait of Hormuz feature hidden coves offering shelter to small mine-laying boats and missile launchers which are ultimate assets that are keeping the US Navy away from the passage.
Closure of Strait of Hormuz
Iran has not mined the Strait of Hormuz nor attacked ships crossing it. The mere threat of attacks was enough for Lloyd’s of London, the world’s leading insurance market, to stop giving any risk assessment for underwriting war premium of the shipping insurance, forcing companies to halt movement of their cargo vessels across the Persian Gulf.
Trump’s bravado to provide alternative insurance through the US International Development Finance Corporation and its naval escorts to merchant ships proved shallow as none of it could materialize. Having failed, he has asked his NATO “allies” and China to send their naval ships to keep the straits open for safe passage.
All refused to oblige Trump.
Meanwhile, the break in supply chain of oil and other products like fertilizers and chemicals is creating a cascading effect on economies of all countries, particularly small nations. 20% of oil, 25 % natural gas and 30% of fertilizer trade pass through the straits and if its closure continues for six weeks, food and energy shocks will lead into inflation and recession.
US Isolated While Iran’s Alliances Intact
The US has landed itself in an unenviable position of isolation. No allies are left anymore. He has alienated every nation, including close allies, first by his tariff policy and verbal abuse and now by not keeping them informed of his plans to attack Iran.
Gulf states are seething in rage for leaving them exposed to Iranian attacks despite hosting American military bases for decades for such eventualities. Even the NATO allies, including his most loyal Prime Minister Georgia Meloni of Italy, have distanced themselves from aiding his war efforts. His calls for naval participation to open the Strait of Hormuz have been shunned.
In contrast, Iran has been receiving effective and coordinated support from Russia and China while staying out of direct involvement giving themselves plausible deniability in view of their equally close relations with Gulf states.
“The precision of Iranian strikes on early-warning radars and over-the-horizon radars, command and control centres reflects a level of sophistication consistent with external support,” experts say.
Russia has provided alternative communication systems, as earlier channels were compromised by Israel, giving real time intelligence, both technical and human that Moscow has nurtured for decades, on US targets while China is channeling financial assistance, spare parts, and missile components through several fronts including Central Asia.
They are expected to do everything possible to keep the clerical regime survive these attacks.
What’s the End Game
Trump has chosen a “little excursion” into Iran riding a tiger and now he has no clue to how to dismount, nor he is getting any helping hand. He can neither end the war, declaring victory as none of his demands were met, nor continue it as the US has no appetite for putting boots on the ground for a prolonged engagement.
Iran is still holding in their bunkers some 440-450 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, which is close to the weapons-grade. They still hold large stockpiles of missiles, though the launchers are depleting fast. Their proxies like Hezbollah are back in action.
The Iranian regime will continue to fight for a long time as they have prepared for such a war with the US since at least 2003, when American forces toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq and neoconservatives in Washington started proclaiming to do so to the clerical regime. Any anti-regime protests in the country would be ruthlessly put down.
For Israel, it is a fight for survival as they see an existential threat from Iran and its proxies in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. They try to rope in the US to wage the war as they cannot wipe out the threat on their own.
Wiser leaders like Yitzak Robin, Shimon Perez and a score of others had realized the futility of enmity and tried to do peace agreements in 1995, mediated by President Clinton of the US, but fizzled out due to the shortsightedness of the then Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat and long surviving Prime Minister Netanyahu.
If President Trump truly wants to leave a lasting legacy for himself, he would be better advised to follow his predecessors and nudge both the Israelis and Palestinians to peace negotiations, with the help of China and Russia, offering adequate international guarantees to the two sides.
Peace will not emerge through barrel of gun.
Iran has refused American overtures for renewed dialogue, but it will ultimately have to come to the negotiating table. It is hoped that Trump administration will then rise to the occasion like the real statesman and bring glory back to the United States of America.
(*Ankineedu Prasad Nallapati is President of the Hyderabad-based think-tank, Deccan Council for Strategic Initiatives, and former Additional Secretary to the Govt of India)
