by Ankineedu Prasad Nallapati*
After a spate of unpleasant outbursts and trade tariffs against India’s refusal to compromise on its economic interests, US President Trump has turned around to recalibrate the relations between the two countries.
Besides the exchange of pleasantries on Prime Minister Modi’s 75th birthday today, the two sides have relaunched trade negotiations, which are described by both parties as “positive and forward looking.”
President Trump, simultaneously, exposed the European Union’s duplicity in demanding more severe American sanctions against Russia to force the latter to end the war in Ukraine, while continuing to trade in Russian energy supplies directly and indirectly.
“I am ready to do major Sanctions on Russia when all NATO Nations have agreed, and started, to do the same thing, and when all NATO Nations STOP BUYING OIL FROM RUSSIA,” Trump posted on Truth Social on September 12. He also demanded them to place 50 to 100 percent tariffs on China and India.
The EU countries bought $25.7 billion worth of Russian oil and gas in 2024, down only 1 percent from the previous year, despite their tall claims of suspending Russian imports after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. They have recently rolled out a plan to ban all Russian gas imports only by 2027, but has exempted Hungary and Slovakia from the sanctions on Russian oil.
The EU has also not shown any willingness yet to impose tariffs, as demanded by Trump, on China and India, but are considering sanctions on companies in the two countries that are trading Russian oil. They have no plans to touch Turkiye, their NATO ally, which imports $62.1 billion worth of oil from Russia.
Meanwhile, the EU countries are gobbling as much of diesel, gasoline and jet oil from India, China and other countries ahead of Brussel’s impending ban on petroleum products refined from Russian crude in third countries starting January 2026.
India’s diesel exports to Europe surged to an 11-month high last month, touching roughly 260,000 barrels per day (bpd), an increase of nearly 63 percent over July and more than double the volumes recorded a year earlier, according to vessel tracking data of global analytics firm Kpler. All of these exports originated from Reliance Industries.
Overall, India’s petroleum product exports to Europe rose 41 percent month-on-month to nearly 399,000 bpd in August.
Planned shutdown of refineries in Europe, West Asia and China for annual maintenance has accentuated EU’s India rush to build stockpiles and cushion against anticipated supply disruptions, starting from January.
Exports of China’s oil products are controlled through a quota system to ensure sufficient supplies for the domestic market and to serve its geo-political interests.
Beijing announced yesterday (Sept 16) the remaining tranche of export quotas for rest of the year, disappointing many European importers. The export quota is 8.395 million tonnes, lower than the 9 million tonnes expected by the market. This brings the total of Chinese oil product exports this year to 40.77 million tonnes, down 0.6 % compared to last year.
President Trump is truly disappointed with his Russian counterpart, Putin, for not going along with his plan to end the war in Ukraine, but has resisted all pressures to impose any penalties that would impact their relations.
The Indo-US relations are also benefitting from Trump’s changed perspective of the Ukraine problem and the EU’s pressure to drag him into the war against Russia.
(*Ankineedu Prasad Nallapati is President of the Hyderabad-based think-tank, “Deccan Council for Strategic Initiatives” and former Additional Secretary to Govt of India)
