by Prasad Nallapati
Pakistan’s Army took an unexpected jolt as the debarred Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) party candidates made a kill winning close to 100 seats in the National Assembly (NA) elections with results of some 20 seats yet to be declared.
The Pakistan Muslim League (PML) led by Nawaz Sharif, which was backed by the Army, could so far secure only 69 seats, followed by 51 seats for the Pakistan Peoples’ Party of Bilawal Bhutto.
The PTI has made a clean sweep of provincial elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, its stronghold, and gave strong performance in Punjab, the PML-N turf, winning 135 seats as against the PML-N’s 140. The PPP demonstrated its traditional dominance over the Sindh province, while Balochistan, as usual, gave a fractured result.
Voters, for the first time, demonstrated their will to defy the Army, and send a strong message that its political manipulation will not work anymore.
Communication and internet links were downed during polling and there were inordinate delays in counting and declaring the results, supporting allegations of rigging.
Imran Khan’s reign was earlier cut short and many of the top leaders of his party were put behind the bars. Khan himself was sentenced for 14, 10 and 3 years of imprisonment respectively in three different cases with several more cases pending. His party’s bat symbol was frozen, forcing PTI nominees to contest as independents.
Well, the Pakistan people have made their choice, but the odds are still against them.
Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N has reached an agreement with the PPP to form a coalition government. Many independents are expected to join them. The PTI may find it difficult to hold its members together and deny an opportunity to pray on them.
The jury is still out on the options these independent members have.
According to Pakistan’s constitutional law, independents are required to decide within 72 hours after notification if they want to independently support a political party or join a party as a group.
The Supreme Court is seized of the matter of recognition of these elected independents as members of the PTI party. The latter argued that the party’s electoral symbol was taken away, but the party was not delisted. Hence, the PTI is still a political party.
The second option they have is to join enmasse another political party. They appear to be considering the Majilis Wahdat-i-Muslimeen (MWM) which is a registered party. The PTI and MWM had earlier worked together in local body elections.
However, the PTI is slightly short of numbers to form a government, and if even 10 or 15 of them switch over to the PML-N coalition, which is quite possible, there will be no option left for them except claiming the status of the Leader of opposition.
The Army got egg on its face but it may have the last laugh. It is again the same recipe. It is no good for Pakistan, its economy or its international standing.
The Army’s faith in Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N to turn around the ailing economy and revive trade relations with India may be unachievable as they are in no position to provide a stable governance, which is a pre-requisite for economic revival. The country may end up in more chaos than it set out to correct.
(*Prasad Nallapati is President of the Hyderabad-based think tank, “Deccan Council for Strategic Studies”, and former Additional Secretary to Govt of India)
